在净零气候承诺中,过度依赖土地去除二氧化碳
Kate Dooley1, Kirstine Lund Christiansen2, Jens Friis Lund3
1School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
Nature communications
|October 22, 2024
概括
国家气候承诺需要大量的土地去除二氧化碳,这往往涉及到土地利用的重大变化. 这凸显了气候目标与土地在减缓努力中的实际作用之间的潜在差距.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 土地使用分析.
背景情况:
- 实现净零排放需要二氧化碳去除 (CDR).
- 目前的CDR评估往往忽视了特定的土地需求和相关的土地利用变化.
- 国家气候承诺越来越依赖于陆地CDR战略.
研究的目的:
- 根据国家气候承诺,量化二氧化碳去除所需的土地面积.
- 分析这些承诺所暗示的土地利用变化的类型 (例如,植树,生态系统恢复).
- 评估这一土地需求的地理分布和时间动态.
主要方法:
- 分析国家气候承诺确定陆地二氧化碳去除目标.
- 基于质押规范的土地面积要求的量化.
- 预计的土地利用变化的地理空间和时间分析.
主要成果:
- 各国的气候承诺集体要求大约10亿公的土地用于二氧化碳的去除.
- 这片土地的40%以上涉及将现有土地用途转换为森林 (植树).
- 预计的土地需求和土地使用变化速度引发了对可行性和可持续性的担忧.
结论:
- 在国家气候承诺中设想的二氧化碳去除土地和土地的现实能力之间存在很大的差距.
- 所需的土地利用变化的规模和性质为气候缓解带来了重大挑战.
- 迫切需要在国家气候减缓计划中提高土地作用和局限性的透明度.
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