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随着气候变暖而导致微生物衍生的碳库存的全球减少及其未来预测
Yuting Liang1,2, Han Hu1,2, Thomas W Crowther3
1State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China.
National science review
|October 23, 2024
概括
全球变暖显著减少了土壤微生物衍生的碳 (MDC) 库存,这对土壤肥力和气候缓解至关重要. 预测显示持续下降,强调需要将这些影响纳入气候模型.
科学领域:
- 土壤科学 土壤科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生物地质化学生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 土壤有机碳 (SOC) 是一个重要的陆地碳池,对减缓气候变化和土壤肥力至关重要.
- 微生物衍生的碳 (MDC) 构成了稳定的SOC的很大一部分,并影响气候反机制.
- 对MDC库存动态的有限理解妨碍了对碳捕获的准确气候变化影响评估.
研究的目的:
- 预测全球微生物衍生碳 (MDC) 库存的时空动态.
- 量化温度上升对MDC库存的影响.
- 根据各种社会经济途径预测未来的MDC股票趋势.
主要方法:
- 编制了关于土壤有机碳的广泛全球数据集.
- 集体机器学习技术的应用用于时空预测.
- 分析历史数据 (1981-2018) 和基于共享的社会经济路径的未来预测.
主要成果:
- 全球温度上升1°C与土壤MDC库存下降6.7 Pg (1.4%的总MDC) 相相关.
- 热带地区的MDC库存下降幅度最大.
- 预计到2100年MDC库存的减少范围在6-37Pg之间,取决于未来的社会经济发展路径.
结论:
- 气温上升对全球土壤微生物衍生的碳库存构成重大威胁.
- 将MDC种群对变暖的反应纳入社会经济模型对于可靠的气候路径选择至关重要.
- 迫切需要采取行动,以应对全球变暖对土壤碳封存和气候调节的影响.
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