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截至2040年,胰腺癌患病率的全球趋势:2040年:一种疾病死亡建模研究
Zeinab Hesami1,2, Meysam Olfatifar3, Amir Sadeghi4
1Foodborne and Waterborne Diseases Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Cancer medicine
|October 23, 2024
概括
预计到2040年,胰腺癌 (PC) 患病率将在全球范围内上升. 女性面临更高的风险,与男性相比,患病率的增加更为急剧.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 胰腺癌 (PC) 仍然是一个高度致命的胃肠道恶性瘤,尽管医学的进步.
- 全球PC的发病率和死亡率正在上升,需要针对性别的负担评估.
- 预测PC患病率对于了解未来的公共卫生挑战至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2040年,胰腺癌 (PC) 的全球流行率.
- 分析按性别预测的PC趋势.
- 确定可能面临更大的PC负担的地区.
主要方法:
- 利用疾病死亡多状态模型 (IDM) 进行流行率预测.
- 数据分析涵盖了2019年至2040年的全球,区域和国家规模.
- 包括性别特定的分析,并呈现95%的置信区间 (CI).
主要成果:
- 预计到2040年,全球PC患病率将达到每10万人中6.093人,比2019年增加12.29%.
- 据估计,自2020年以来,PC患病率的平均年增长率为0.5%.
- 预计女性的患病率将会更快地上升,在1990-2019年至2019-2040年期间,与男性相比,患病率将增加2.6倍.
结论:
- 预计到2040年,全球胰腺癌患病率将增加,女性的风险更高.
- 社会经济地位较低的地区可能面临不成比例地更大的PC风险.
- 这些发现强调了有针对性的公共卫生战略和干预措施的必要性.
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