预测尼泊尔气候变化下的熊的潜在息地
Rishi Baral1, Binaya Adhikari2, Rajan Prasad Paudel3
1Laboratory of Wildlife Biology and Medicine, Department of Environmental Veterinary Science, Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. right.rishi1@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|October 23, 2024
概括
尼泊尔 尼泊尔 尼泊尔 尼泊尔 尼泊尔
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 生物多样性研究 生物多样性研究
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 尼泊尔有三种不同的熊种:低地熊 (Melursus ursinus),中山的亚洲黑熊 (Ursus thibetanus) 和高山喜马拉雅的棕熊 (Ursus arctos).
- 了解这些物种的息地分布和保护状况对于尼泊尔有效的野生动物管理至关重要.
- 气候变化对熊种群构成重大威胁,需要准确的息地建模来进行未来预测.
研究的目的:
- 模拟目前和未来适合惰熊,亚洲黑熊和尼泊尔棕熊的息地.
- 评估保护区内适合息地的范围,并确定关键的保护区.
- 预测气候变化对这三种熊种分布的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了179个惰熊的发生点,199个亚洲黑熊和41个棕熊的发生点.
- 在BIOMOD2框架内使用物种分布建模算法,包括气候和地形变量.
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 2-4.5情景对未来气候条件的预测息地适应性.
主要成果:
- 预计惰熊的适合息地为10,971.75平方公里,亚洲黑熊为29,470.75平方公里,棕熊为6152.97平方公里.
- 在保护区内确定了重要的息地:4120.56平方公里 (熊),9688.67平方公里 (亚洲黑熊) 和4538.67平方公里 (棕熊).
- 预计到2050年和2070年,这三个物种都将遭受大量息地丧失,棕熊将面临最严重的减少 (高达82.20%).
结论:
- 当前和预计的息地模型为开发针对尼泊尔熊种类的有针对性的保护战略提供了关键数据.
- 预计气候变化将大大减少,亚洲黑熊和棕熊的可用息地,这凸显了保护行动的紧迫性.
- 保护工作应该集中在像奇特旺国家公园和安纳普尔纳保护区这样的保护区,这些保护区对于这些熊种类的生存至关重要.
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