在Mittag-Leffler内核下的埃博拉病毒流行病的时间尺度测量中,使用碎片式混合分数运算符进行建模和分析
Parvaiz Ahmad Naik1, Muhammad Farman2,3, Khadija Jamil4
1Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities, 533000, Baise, Guangxi, China. naik.parvaiz@ymun.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|October 23, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的分数顺序模型,以了解埃博拉病毒的动态和控制. 该模型增强了对疫情的预测和对这种严重传染病的有效控制措施的规划.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 分数微积分的计算.
背景情况:
- 像埃博拉这样的新兴传染病对公众健康构成重大威胁.
- 有限有效的疗法需要对控制策略进行先进的建模.
- 分形分析和时间尺度理论为复杂的生物系统提供了新的方法.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析埃博拉病毒动态的分数顺序流行病模型.
- 调查碎形模式和时间尺度对疾病传播的影响.
- 评估拟议的埃博拉模型的稳定性和控制.
主要方法:
- 使用米塔格-莱弗勒内核开发一个碎片式混合分数运算符模型.
- 定性和统计分析,包括利普希茨标准,线性增长和莱雷-舒德固定点定理.
- 混乱控制用于系统稳定和牛顿多项式方法用于动态行为分析的应用.
- 针对一般化解决方案的乌兰-海尔斯稳定性分析.
主要成果:
- 拟议的分数顺序模型在可行的领域内展示了稳定和有限的解决方案.
- 模拟有效地捕捉干预和感染率对埃博拉传播的影响.
- 该模型为疾病传播动态提供了可靠的预测.
结论:
- 这种分数顺序建模方法显著提高了对埃博拉病毒传播的理解.
- 该模型为预测疫情和告知公共卫生干预提供了一个强大的框架.
- 实际应用包括分析现实世界的数据,以改善疾病控制计划.
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