生态保护使生态库兹涅茨曲线的转折点更早地到来
Xiaoyang Liu1,2, Hongwei Wang3,4, Songhong Li1,2,5
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Scientific reports
|October 24, 2024
概括
天山山北坡的土地利用变化影响生态系统服务价值 (ESV),耕地和未使用的土地是关键驱动因素. 在生态保护场景下确定了ESV的生态转折点.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 地理空间分析是什么
- 可持续的土地管理
背景情况:
- 了解土地利用覆盖/变化 (LUCC) 以及其对生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 的影响,对于区域发展和土地资源管理至关重要.
- 天山山北坡 (NSTM) 面临着动态的土地利用变化,需要对其生态后果进行评估.
研究的目的:
- 在NSTM中使用PLUS模型在不同的未来场景下模拟LUCC.
- 分析LUCC,景观模式 (LSP) 和ESV之间的相互作用.
- 通过生态库兹内茨曲线评估ESV与经济发展之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用PLUS模型进行土地使用覆盖/变化 (LUCC) 模拟.
- 生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 系数调整为区域特异性.
- 对景观模式 (LSP) 演变的分析.
- 生态库兹内茨曲线适合确定ESV经济发展趋势.
主要成果:
- 在历史和未来的LUCC中,耕地和未使用的土地占主导地位. 未使用的土地显示出显著的开发潜力.
- 生态系统服务价值 (ESV) 在自然发展场景下下降,但在生态保护场景下增加.
- 景观模式呈现出越来越多的碎片化和复杂性,在生态保护下,这种趋势变得更慢.
结论:
- LUCC通过LSP影响ESV,创造一个反循环,这对于理解区域生态动态至关重要.
- 对NSTM的生态库兹涅茨曲线显示了一个N形,在特定的人均GDP的生态保护场景下确定了一个生态转折点.
- 未来的土地利用规划应考虑开发和生态保护之间的权衡,以优化ESV.
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