高温和交通事故犯罪:来自中国超过47万起违法行为的证据
1School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Economics and human biology
|October 24, 2024
概括
极端的高温显著增加了交通事故犯罪率,超过100°F的一天导致11.9%的上升. 易受伤害的群体和周日更容易受到高温的影响,但司机适应能力有限.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 运输科学 运输科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化越来越多地与各种社会影响有关,包括公共安全.
- 在全球范围内,道路安全仍然是一个关键问题,交通事故造成了大量伤亡和经济损失.
- 了解环境因素 (如温度) 对交通安全的影响,对于制定有效的缓解策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查高温与交通事故犯罪发生率之间的因果关系.
- 量化极端高温对交通事故犯罪的影响.
- 探索温度对道路安全影响的潜在异质性,并研究适应行为.
主要方法:
- 利用了2014-2018年中国法院超过47万起交通事故犯罪判决的综合数据.
- 采用城市一级的每日面板数据来分析每日最高气温与交通事故犯罪率之间的相关性.
- 根据年龄,周日和人口密度进行异质性分析,并纳入交通拥堵数据.
主要成果:
- 每天最高温度超过100°F与交通事故犯罪增加11.9%相比较温和的温度.
- 45岁及以上的个人,平日事件和人口密地区对极端高温的脆弱性增加.
- 没有发现热量的显著滞后或累积效应,并且观察到驾驶员适应的有限证据,在拥堵期间观察到一些回避行为.
结论:
- 极端高温对道路安全构成重大风险,增加了交通事故犯罪的可能性.
- 特定的人口和局势因素加剧了高温对交通安全的影响.
- 这些发现表明,目前的驾驶员适应策略是有限的,估计的影响可能代表一个保守的下限.
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