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老年人寿命的增加与与温度相关的死亡风险之间的相互关系,西班牙1980-2018年
Simon J Lloyd1, Erich Striessnig2, José Manuel Aburto3
1Climate and Health Programme, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain.
Environment international
|October 24, 2024
概括
随着寿命的增加,西班牙老年人与温度相关的死亡风险显著降低. 然而,温度相关死亡的变化也增加了预期寿命和寿命不平等,特别是由于中度寒冷暴露.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 与温度相关的死亡率不成比例地影响着老年人群.
- 预期寿命的增加是一个重要的人口趋势,影响健康结果.
- 长寿与与温度相关的死亡风险之间的相互作用需要研究.
研究的目的:
- 在西班牙 (1980-2018) 量化寿命增加和与温度相关的死亡风险之间的相互关系.
- 评估寿命延长对温度相关死亡绝对风险的影响.
- 评估与温度相关的死亡如何影响预期寿命和寿命不平等.
主要方法:
- 利用了以前研究中关于因温度而导致的死亡 (65岁以上) 的数据.
- 结合西班牙 (1980-2018) 的人口,死亡率和寿命表数据.
- 采用反事实方法和分解分析.
主要成果:
- 长寿的增加大大降低了绝对温度相关的死亡风险在所有温度范围的两个性别.
- 长寿在极端高温期间约占30%的风险降低,在极端寒冷期间约占20%.
- 与温度相关的死亡模式的变化为预期寿命的增加和寿命不平等的增加贡献了20%以上,主要是由中度寒冷驱动的.
结论:
- 长寿的增加为老年人提供了与温度相关的死亡率的显著保护.
- 公共卫生战略应应对环境危害和社会脆弱性,以确保健康的老龄化.
- 政策必须优先考虑增加健康寿命,而不仅仅是延长寿命.
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