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气候变暖加剧了森林碳和循环的全球不平等
Jinglan Cui1,2, Ouping Deng1,3, Miao Zheng1
1College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nature communications
|October 25, 2024
概括
全球变暖将减少森林气,并影响碳汇. 这种气候变化影响着森林生态系统,可能会扩大全球北方和南方之间的经济差距.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 森林生态 森林生态
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 森林是提供基本生态系统服务的重要自然资源.
- 全球变暖对森林碳和循环的确切影响尚未得到充分理解.
- 了解这些影响对于预测未来森林健康和功能至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2100年全球变暖对森林碳和循环的影响.
- 在气候变暖下量化输入,积累和损失的变化.
- 评估对全球碳吸收能力和经济差异的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用气候模型来模拟森林对预测的变暖情景的反应.
- 循环指标的量化变化 (输入,积累,损失) 百万.
- 估计对全球碳捕获能力的影响为每年10亿.
- 分析了全球不同地区的经济后果.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,总输入 (7 ± 2 Tg) 和积累 (28 ± 9 Tg) 将减少.
- 预计由于气候变暖,反应性气对环境的损失 (9 ± 3 Tg) 将增加.
- 估计全球碳汇能力的妥协量为每年0.45±0.14亿.
- 显示了高收入国家的潜在经济收益 (179亿美元) 与其他地区 (310亿美元) 的损失.
结论:
- 全球变暖严重破坏了森林的碳和循环,威胁到生态系统服务.
- 森林循环中的变化可能会加剧全球经济不平等.
- 气候智能森林管理,包括恢复和物种优化,对于缓解是必不可少的.
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