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贝叶斯模型预测美国心血管疾病相关死亡率趋势
Salil V Deo1,2,3, Sadeer Al-Kindi4, Pedro R V O Salerno5
1Surgical Services Louis Stokes Cleveland Cleveland OH.
Journal of the American Heart Association
|October 25, 2024
概括
未来心血管疾病死亡率趋势显示,缺血性心脏病 (IHD) 和稳定性脑血管疾病 (CeVD) 率正在下降,但预计40-79岁的美国成年人心力衰竭 (HF) 死亡率将大幅增加.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病死亡率趋势对公共卫生有重大影响.
- 为了有效地分配卫生资源,需要准确的预测.
- 专注于40-79岁成年人的缺血性心脏病 (IHD),脑血管疾病 (CeVD) 和心力衰竭 (HF).
研究的目的:
- 预测美国成年人口 (40-79岁) 中IHD,CeVD和HF的未来死亡率.
- 根据预计的心血管疾病死亡率趋势,为公共卫生战略和资源分配提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自CDC WONDER数据库 (2000-2019年) 的人口级数据.
- 与美国人口估计 (2000-2035) 相关的死亡率数据.
- 采用贝叶斯年龄周期队列模型,预测年龄标准化死亡率 (aSMR) 到2035年.
主要成果:
- 预计到2035年,美国40-79岁人口将增加16%.
- 预计IHD aSMR将从2019年的111.9降至2035年的81.8.
- 预计CeVD aSMR将保持稳定 (2019年的37.4%,到2035年的38.6).
- 在所有年龄组中,HF aSMR预计将从2019年的16.5显著增加到2035年的30.9.
结论:
- 在2020年至2035年期间,预计IHD死亡率下降和CeVD死亡率稳定.
- 预计心力衰竭死亡率的大幅增加需要积极的公共卫生规划.
- 数据为未来的公共卫生计划和资源分配提供了关键的见解.
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