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提高心血管风险预测:开发一个先进的Xgboost模型,具有医院级随机效应
Tim Dong1, Iyabosola Busola Oronti2, Shubhra Sinha1
1Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS2 8HW, UK.
一个新的二进制结果混合效应Xgboost (BME) 模型提高了对心血管结果的预测能力,特别是使用较小的数据集. 这种机器学习方法有效地处理相关的医院级数据,优于传统模型.
科学领域:
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 像Xgboost这样的集结树型模型在心血管医学中具有预后性,但与相关数据 (例如医院级效应) 斗争.
- 现有的模型在计算医疗保健中常见的层次数据结构方面存在局限性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个二进制结果混合效应Xgboost (BME) 模型,结合医院级随机效应.
- 评估BME模型在处理相关心血管结局数据方面的性能.
- 将BME与固定效应Xgboost和传统的物流回归进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自英国42家医院的227,087名心脏手术患者 (2012-2019) 的大型数据集.
- 采用培训/验证 (n=157,196) 和坚持 (n=69,891) 的队列结构.
- 拟合后勤回归,混合效应后勤回归,Xgboost和BME模型来评估30天死亡率,将医院视为集群变量.
主要成果:
- 与医院相关的高死亡率变化证实了混合效应模型的必要性.
- 非标准化的Xgboost BME在较小样本大小的标准Xgboost上显示出显著的预测能力改进.
- 性能差异随着数据集大小的增加而减少;Xgboost模型在更大的样本大小下总体表现出色.
结论:
- 将混合效应集成到机器学习模型中可以提高性能,特别是对于较小的数据集.
- BME模型为分析相关的医疗保健数据提供了一个有希望的方法.
- 混合效应建模对于准确预测层次健康数据集的结果至关重要.
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