开发和验证社区老年轻度认知障碍风险计算器 (CGMCI-风险)
Jiangwei Chen1, Qing Fang1, Kehua Yang2
1School of Nursing, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 25, 2024
概括
一个新的工具,社区老年轻度认知障碍风险计算器 (CGMCI-Risk),有助于识别有轻度认知障碍 (MCI) 高风险的老年人. 这个计算器使用常见的因素来预测认知能力在三年内下降.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 认知神经学 认知神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 轻度认知障碍 (MCI) 是老年人群的重大公共卫生问题.
- 早期识别患有MCI高风险的个人对于及时干预至关重要.
- 社区医疗保健机构需要为主动认知健康评估提供可访问的工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证社区老年轻度认知障碍风险计算器 (CGMCI-风险).
- 为社区卫生保健工作者创建一个工具,以识别患有MCI高风险的个人.
- 建立一种可靠的方法,在社区环境中预测老年人MCI风险.
主要方法:
- 在国家代表性社区调查数据上使用后勤回归的CGMCI-风险计算器的开发.
- 通过向后渐进回归进行变量选择.
- 通过引导重新抽样进行内部验证,通过时间验证进行外部验证.
- 使用AUROC,校准曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 该CGMCI-风险模型结合了预测因素,包括年龄,教育,性别,运动,园艺,媒体消费,IADL,听力和功能.
- 该模型在内部验证中显示出良好的歧视,AUROC为0.781 (95%CI:0.7660.796).
- 外部验证证实了该模型的稳定性,达到0.782的AUROC (95%CI:0.7630.801).
- 校准分析显示了强烈的一致性,DCA表明了显著的临床实用性.
结论:
- CGMCI-风险计算器是评估社区居住的老年人认知功能风险的有效工具.
- 该计算器使用易于获得的预测变量,促进医疗保健专业人员早期识别风险.
- CGMCI-风险提供了一种有价值的手段,用于预测在三年内发展轻度认知障碍的风险.
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