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用当前的地理存在数据和MAXENT (CMIP 6) 来绘制气候变化下的Latoia consocia Walker的物种分布

Yuhan Wu¹, Danping Xu¹, Yaqin Peng¹

¹College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.

|October 25, 2024

概括

植物害虫Latoia consocia正在中国北部迅速蔓延. 气候变化可能会减少其适合的息地,帮助害虫控制工作.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
环境科学环境科学
农业昆虫学农业昆虫学

背景情况:

拉托亚 (Latoia consocia) 是一个重要的食植物害虫,在中国北部迅速扩散.
这种害虫对该地区的各种植物物种构成严重威胁.

研究的目的:

研究气候条件对Latoia consocia.分布的影响.
预测这种害虫在不断变化的气候场景下目前和未来的分布.

主要方法:

利用MaxEnt利基模型和ArcGIS 10.8软件进行分布预测.
分析了关键的环境因素,包括年降水量 (Bio12),最干燥的月份降水量 (Bio14),年温度范围 (Bio7),最冷的月份最低温度 (Bio6).

主要成果:

马克森特模型在预测Latoia consocia分布方面表现出很高的准确性 (AUC = 0.913).
目前的气候支持中国2243平方公里的高度适合的生长面积,台湾拥有最大的部分 (1450平方公里).
预计气候变暖将减少Latoia consocia.的潜在息地面积.

结论:

降水和温度等环境因素显著影响拉托亚的社会分布.
预计未来的气候变化将使该害虫的适宜息地减少.
这些发现支持开发早期预警系统和有效的害虫管理和生态保护的控制策略.

关键词:

拉托亚与社会步行者马克斯恩特马克斯恩特气候变化气候变化气候变化地理分布地理分布.

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