应用机器学习和SHAP方法来识别对中学学生数学素养表现的关键影响
Ying Huang1, Ying Zhou1, Jihe Chen2
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541006, China.
Journal of Intelligence
|October 25, 2024
概括
在PISA 2022中,学生的数学成绩在全球范围内下降. 机器学习确定了数学自我效率作为影响中学学生数学素养的关键因素,并指出了个性化的因素.
科学领域:
- 教育心理学教育心理学
- 教育中的数据科学教育中的数据科学
- 相对教育教育比较教育
背景情况:
- 2022年的PISA调查显示,经合组织国家在数学素养方面出现了显著的全球下降.
- 东亚系统 (香港,澳门,台北,新加坡,日本,韩国) 表现强,有些表现有所改善.
- 了解影响中学生数学技能的因素在下降趋势中至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过机器学习识别影响中学学生数学素养的关键因素.
- 分析PISA 2022数据集中的6个东亚教育系统的34,968个样本和151个特征.
- 确定关键的预测因素及其对数学素养的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用机器学习,特别是XGBoost模型,因为它的高预测准确度.
- 应用了夏普利添加式解释 (SHAP) 方法来解释模型预测.
- 分析了一大数据集,包括34,968个样本和151个特征.
主要成果:
- XGBoost模型在预测数学素养方面取得了最高的准确性.
- 确定了15个重要的预测因素,特别是数学自我有效性 (MATHEFF) 和预期的职业地位 (BSMJ).
- 数学自我效能成为了最有影响的因素,对每个学生的影响各不相同.
结论:
- 数学自我效能是数学素养的主要决定因素.
- 影响因素及其影响是个性化的,需要量身定制的教育策略.
- 提出了四项建议,以提高中学生的数学素养表现.
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