预算赤字是否导致经常账户赤字? 重新评估使用军事开支作为一个工具变量
1Institute of Chinese Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China.
PloS one
|October 25, 2024
概括
预算赤字导致经常账户赤字,支持双赤字假说. 这项研究使用军事支出作为一个工具变量来证实发达国家与发展中国家之间的联系.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 财政政策 财政政策
背景情况:
- 双赤字假说认为预算和经常账户赤字之间存在联系.
- 现有的经验证据经常受到内源性和反向因果关系问题的阻碍.
- 需要有力的证据来支持对经常账户不平衡的财政政策实施.
研究的目的:
- 重新审视预算赤字对经常账户赤字的影响.
- 通过使用强大的计量经济学方法,测试双赤字假设的有效性.
- 为财政政策在管理经常账户不平衡方面的有效性提供证据.
主要方法:
- 利用来自发达国家和发展中国家的广泛的跨国面板数据.
- 雇佣军费支出作为解决内源性问题的工具变量.
- 进行多次可靠性测试以确保发现的可靠性.
主要成果:
- 确认了预算赤字和经常账户赤字之间存在显著的积极关系.
- 这些发现支持发达国家和发展中国家双赤字假设.
- 仪表变量方法验证了因果关系,即使考虑到外源性因素.
结论:
- 预算赤字是经常账户赤字的一个重要驱动因素.
- 双赤字假设被提出的证据强有力的支持.
- 财政政策是解决经常账户不平衡的可行工具.
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