[基于PLUS-INVEST-地质探测器模型的三河源国家公园碳储存的时空变化和驱动力]
Tian-Chao Jia1, Xi-Wu Hu1,2
1School of Economics and Management, Qinghai Minzu University, Xining 810007, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|October 25, 2024
概括
三河源国家公园的碳储存波动,但从1990年到2020年总体上增加. 未来的预测显示下降,生态保护减轻了下降,突出了其对区域可持续性的重要性.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学 生态与环境科学
- 生态系统服务生态系统服务
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 三河源国家公园 (TRNP) 是生态保护和可持续发展的关键地区.
- 了解碳捕获动态对于管理这种敏感生态系统至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有完全捕捉到长期的时空变化和TRNP碳储存的驱动力.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2020年,分析TRNP中碳捕获服务功能的时空变化.
- 确定这些变化背后的关键驱动力.
- 预测不同发展场景下的未来碳储存趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用了从1990年到2020年以五年间隔的历史土地使用数据.
- 采用了PLUS (Patch产生土地利用模拟),InVEST (生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值) 和GeoDetector模型.
- 分析了历史的碳储存,探索了驱动力,并在自然发展和生态保护场景下预测了未来的碳储存.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2020年,TRNP的总碳储量增加了41.85×10^6,其中草原的贡献最大.
- 碳储存的空间分布相对稳定,长江,兰和黄河源地公园的贡献比例分别为7:1:2.
- 关键的驱动因素包括部分植被覆盖 (FVC),土壤类型和年降水,表现出双因素和非线性增强相互作用.
- 预计到2030年,碳储存量将减少4.87% (自然发展) 和3.98% (生态保护),生态保护对减少具有显著的抑制作用.
结论:
- TRNP的碳储存已经表现出弹性,但面临着未来的下降,强调需要继续进行保护工作.
- 生态保护措施对于减轻碳损失和确保该地区的可持续发展至关重要.
- 这些发现为国家空间规划和加强TRNP的陆地生态系统碳储存提供了必要的数据.
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