缺铁:从1990年到2050年的全球趋势和预测
Li Wang1, Dan Liang2,3, Hengqian Huangfu1
1Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Nutrients
|October 26, 2024
概括
缺铁 (ID) 是全球健康负担,预计到2050年病例将增加,特别是在低收入地区. 弱势群体包括5岁以下的儿童,妇女和老年男性,需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 缺铁 (ID) 是全球贫血的主要原因,对全球健康构成重大挑战.
- 了解ID患病率模式对于有效的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测铁缺乏症的未来患病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 从2022年到2050年.
- 分析人口统计学变量对身份证件负担的影响.
- 确定高风险人群和地区进行有针对性的干预.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据 (1990-2021) 来构建一个XGBoost预测模型.
- 采用沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 来解释模型预测并识别关键贡献变量.
- 应用年龄周期队列 (APC) 模型,并分析了社会人口指数 (SDI) 和ID率之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 全球ID病例预计到2050年将从127亿 (2021) 增加到144亿;DALY将从3220万增加到3613万.
- 年龄标准化流行率 (ASPR) 和DALYs率 (ASDR) 呈现下降趋势,但在特定地区 (塞内加尔,马里,巴基斯坦,也门) 仍然很高.
- 性别是主要的预测因素;女性 (10-60) 和5岁以下的儿童受到影响最多,老年男性 (80+) 显著增加. 较低的SDI地区的ID负担较高.
结论:
- 缺铁仍然是一个重要的全球健康问题,预计总病例和DALY将增加,特别是在SDI较低的地区.
- 性别,年龄和社会经济因素显著影响了ID负担,突出了弱势群体:儿童,妇女和老年男性.
- 针对性干预,包括营养,查和铁补充在低SDI地区是必要的,以减轻铁缺乏日益增长的负担.
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