aCCI-HBV-ACLF:一种新的预测模型,用于乙型肝炎病毒相关的急性慢性肝衰竭
Xinyi Chen1, Feiqiong Gao1, Qiaoling Pan1
1State Key Laboratory for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou City, China.
Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics
|October 26, 2024
概括
一种新的预后模型,即与乙型肝炎病毒相关的急性至慢性肝衰竭 (aCCI-HBV-ACLF) 的年龄调整的查尔森并发症指数,准确地预测了无移植死亡率. 这种工具有助于改善HBV-ACLF患者的临床管理.
科学领域:
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 临床预后 临床预后
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 早期发现与乙型肝炎病毒相关的急性至慢性肝衰竭 (HBV-ACLF) 对患者的治疗和生存至关重要.
- 现有的HBV-ACLF预后模型往往忽视了患者的潜在临床状况,限制了其预测准确度.
研究的目的:
- 在HBV-ACLF患者中开发一个精确的无移植死亡率预后模型.
- 将年龄调整的查尔森并发症指数 (aCCI) 纳入HBV-ACLF的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 906名HBV-ACLF患者的队列被分为训练 (70%) 和时间验证 (30%) 队列.
- 用单变量,逻辑回归和LASSO回归分析来构建预后模型.
- 该模型在时间和外部验证队列中进一步验证.
主要成果:
- 总胆红素,中性粒细胞,国际正常化比率和aCCI与28天无移植死亡率显著相关.
- 开发的aCCI-HBV-ACLF模型显示出强大的预测性能 (AUC为培训队列28天死亡率的0.859).
- 该模型在28天死亡率的时间 (AUC 0.869) 和外部 (AUC 0.868) 验证队伍中保持了高的预测准确性.
结论:
- 一种新的预后模型,aCCI-HBV-ACLF,被开发用于预测HBV-ACLF的无移植死亡率.
- aCCI-HBV-ACLF模型显示了对28日和90日移植无死亡率的优异预测能力.
- 该模型为HBV-ACLF管理中的临床决策提供了更高的精度.
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