气候变化正在加剧西非地区的降雨侵蚀性和土壤侵蚀
Oluwafemi E Adeyeri1, Akinleye H Folorunsho2, Tolulope E Adeliyi3
1Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2600, Australia; Low-Carbon and Climate Impact Research Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon 999077, Hong Kong.
The Science of the total environment
|October 26, 2024
概括
西非的土壤侵蚀将因气候变化而恶化,根据未来的情景预计土壤侵蚀将大幅增加. 需要紧急的土壤管理和适应战略,以应对日益增长的侵蚀率及其影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 土壤科学 土壤科学
背景情况:
- 土壤侵蚀对西非的农业,水质和生态系统稳定性构成重大威胁.
- 了解降雨侵蚀性和侵蚀动态对于有效的环境管理和社会福祉至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据不同的共享社会经济途径 (SSP),分析西非地区的历史和未来降雨侵蚀性和土壤侵蚀模式.
- 为了比较Renard方法的准确性和修改后的Fournier指数 (MFI) 用于计算降雨侵蚀性 (R因子).
- 确定易受土壤侵蚀增加的地区,并量化预测的变化.
主要方法:
- 根据SSP 370和585的历史 (1982-2014) 和未来 (2028-2100) 时期利用了偏差纠正缩小 (BCD) 气候模型.
- 对比了Renard的方法和修改后的Fournier指数 (MFI) 来计算R因子,根据参考数据进行验证.
- 分析了影响侵蚀性波动的气象模式和预测未来侵蚀率 (t/ha/yr).
主要成果:
- 修改后的Fournier指数 (MFI) 在西非特定地区的可靠性高于Renard的方法.
- 由于气候变化,预计未来的土壤侵蚀在某些地区将超过20/公/年.
- 在SSP370下,土壤侵蚀预计将增加14.84% (近期) 和18.65% (远期);在SSP585下,增加预计分别为19.86%和23.49%.
- 尼日利亚和贝宁被确定为面临最严重侵蚀增长的地区,尼日利亚可能在SSP 585.5下在遥远的未来看到66.41%的增长.
结论:
- 西非面临着对加剧的气候条件的暴露,导致土壤侵蚀.
- 该研究强调,迫切需要有针对性的土壤管理和气候适应战略,以减轻不利的生态和社会经济影响.
- 准确评估降雨侵蚀性对于有效的侵蚀控制规划至关重要.
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