寻求长期获得群众智慧的代理人减少了立即决策准确度
1Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
概括
理性代理人最大化长期回报优先考虑团队凝聚力而不是立即收益,导致短期准确性权衡. 不同意,而不是共识,标志着这些群体的集体智慧.
科学领域:
- 行为生态学 行为生态学
- 进化游戏理论 进化游戏理论
- 社会决策的社会决策.
背景情况:
- 社会动物从集体智慧中受益,以改善决策.
- 保持群体成员资格对于获得共享信息和未来利益至关重要.
- 相互矛盾的信息可以在即时的奖励和长期的团体利益之间产生紧张关系.
研究的目的:
- 研究不同的时间视野 (短期与长期奖励最大化) 如何影响决策中的社会合规性.
- 为了确定集体智慧是否被准确地感知到在具有长期导向代理人的群体中.
- 确定准确集体选择的可靠指标.
主要方法:
- 基于代理的建模模拟了具有不同时间视界的理性代理.
- 在信息分歧的条件下分析决策模式.
- 在不同的社会战略下,个人准确度和集体选择准确度的比较.
主要成果:
- 实现长期奖励最大化的代理人对同行决策的符合性更高,接受短期准确性较低.
- 由于对社会信息的依赖增加,长期导向的代理人群体中的个人准确性下降.
- 代理人之间的分歧是集体选择准确性的更准确的预测指标,而不是长期聚焦群体的共识.
结论:
- 观察到的社交模式必须考虑个人和团体的生活历史,而不仅仅是孤立的决定.
- 优先考虑长期奖励可以改变集体智慧的动态和可靠性.
- 解释社会一致性和集体准确性需要一个细微的,取决于背景的方法.
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