政治从业者很难预测哪些信息能够说服公众
David E Broockman1, Joshua L Kalla2, Christian Caballero1
1Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
概括
政治从业者和非专业人士在预测信息的说服力方面表现出类似的近乎偶然的准确性. 专业知识和经验并不能显著提高政治信息传递效率的预测能力.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
背景情况:
- 长期以来的理论表明,政治精英的信息显著影响公众论.
- 对信息咨询的大量投资意味着从业者拥有强大的说服性直觉.
研究的目的:
- 评估政治从业人员关于信息说服力的预测准确性.
- 将从业者的预测与非专业人士的预测和机会水平进行比较.
主要方法:
- 一个大样本调查实验,测量了21个政治问题的众多信息的影响.
- 调查政治从业者和平民,以预测信息的有效性.
- 分析基于从业者的经验,专业知识和人口统计数据的预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 无论是政治从业者还是非专业人士,在预测说服力效应方面,他们的表现都仅略高于机会.
- 实践者的预测并不比普通人更有意义,即使经过对膨胀的期望进行调整.
- 自称专家或经验丰富的从业人员的准确性没有得到改善.
结论:
- 政治从业者的关于信息说服力的直觉令人惊地有限.
- 精英对公众论的影响可能取决于超出实践者的当前预测能力的因素.
- 这些发现挑战了关于政治竞选中信息咨询有效性的假设.
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