观测到的地方生产的碳分离不足以实现到2050年的净零目标
Maria Zioga1,2,3, Maximilian Kotz1, Anders Levermann1,2
1Research Department of Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam 14473, Germany.
概括
地方气候行动是实现净零排放的关键. 虽然一些地区在将经济增长与碳排放脱方面取得了进展,但目前的速度不足以实现到2050年的全球气候目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 区域政策分析 区域政策分析
背景情况:
- 从历史上看,经济增长与碳排放相关,推动了气候变化.
- 稳定全球气温需要实现净零碳排放.
- 目前的减排率和经济脱不足以实现全球气候目标.
研究的目的:
- 评估地方气候行动在将经济增长与碳排放脱方面的有效性.
- 为了估计三十年来全球不同地区的脱率和二氧化碳排放强度.
- 确定影响在地方一级成功脱的因素.
主要方法:
- 分析报告的经济产出和30年来1500多个国家以下地区 (覆盖全球排放量的85%) 的基于生产的排放数据.
- 脱率和二氧化碳排放强度的估计.
- 基于收入,历史碳强度,地方气候支出和国家政策框架 (例如,经合组织,欧盟) 的脱率的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 30%的分析区域已经实现了经济增长与碳排放的完全脱.
- 高收入和历史上碳密集型地区的脱率更高,排放强度下降.
- 经合组织国家气候支出增加的次国家区域和实施气候政策的欧盟地区的脱率较高.
- 在国家边界内,脱率的变化比在国家边界之间更大,特别是在治理较弱的国家.
- 按照目前的速度,预计到2050年,不到一半的亚国家级地区将达到净零排放.
结论:
- 地方气候政策有效地推动了经济与碳排放的脱.
- 在分离进展方面存在显著的区域差异,需要量身定制的分国家级战略.
- 加快努力和政策实施对于在所需的时间框架内实现全球净零目标至关重要.
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