背景不确定性不会增加决策中的风险厌恶
Johannes Leder1, Philipp Chapkovski2, Astrid Schütz1
1Department of Psychology, University of Bamberg, 96045, Bamberg, Germany.
Scientific reports
|October 29, 2024
概括
这项研究调查了背景不确定性如何影响冒险行为. 尽管有理论预测,但在4项试验中,有863名参与者发现背景不确定性对决策没有显著影响.
科学领域:
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
背景情况:
- 经济和心理学理论表明,背景不确定性,独立于决策,可以影响风险承担.
- 之前的经验证据是不确定的,通常基于有限的实验设计.
研究的目的:
- 系统地调查背景不确定性对决策的影响.
- 区分和测试背景模糊性 (未知概率) 与背景风险 (已知概率) 的影响.
- 测试背景不确定性的类型是否会减轻其对风险承担的影响.
主要方法:
- 文献审查以区分背景模糊性和背景风险.
- 四个受控实验涉及863名参与者.
- 使用各种方法诱导背景不确定性 (模两可或风险).
- 使用多个验证任务测量冒险行为.
主要成果:
- 背景不确定性 (含糊性或风险) 对参与者的冒险行为没有显著的影响.
- 背景不确定性的类型并没有显著缓和风险承担的影响.
结论:
- 该研究的结果不支持背景不确定性影响决策中的冒险行为的假设.
- 可能需要进一步的研究来探索潜在的调节者或替代的理论框架.
相关概念视频
01:20Decision Making
93
Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
93
01:09Decision Making: P-value Method
5.3K
The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
5.3K
01:25The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
7.2K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.2K
00:59Uncertainty: Overview
526
In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.
526
00:59Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
654
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
654
01:14Frustration and Conflict: Avoidance-Avoidance, Double-Approach Avoidance
59
Avoidance-avoidance conflict refers to a psychological situation where a person must choose between two or more unpleasant alternatives. These conflicts are particularly stressful because neither option is desirable. This dilemma is often expressed in sayings like "caught between a rock and a hard place" or "between the devil and the deep blue sea." For instance, individuals who fear dental procedures may find themselves torn between enduring a painful toothache or facing the...
59