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仅基于预测未来气候变化的模型,对物种分布的预测是不可靠的
Spyros Tsiftsis1, Zuzana Štípková2, Marcel Rejmánek3
1Department of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, Democritus University of Thrace, 66132, Drama, Greece. stsiftsis@neclir.duth.gr.
Scientific reports
|October 29, 2024
概括
基于气候变化预测未来物种范围的物种分布模型 (SDM) 通常是不准确的. 这项研究发现了预测和实际兰花分布之间的显著差异,敦促对SDM预测保持谨慎.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性研究的研究.
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候和土地利用变化是物种多样性下降的主要驱动因素.
- 对未来物种分布的准确预测对于保护工作至关重要.
- 种类分布模型 (SDM) 常用于这些预测,依赖于气候数据.
研究的目的:
- 评估物种分布模型 (SDM) 在预测气候变化下的潜在物种分布方面的准确性.
- 将历史SDM预测与实际物种分布数据进行比较.
主要方法:
- 从1901年至1950年使用的兰花 (兰花科) 发生记录.
- 使用了同一个历史时期的环境和气候数据.
- 开发了SDM来预测1980-2014年潜在的物种分布.
- 模型预测与1980-2014年观察到的物种分布数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 与1980-2014年期间实际观察到的数据相比,SDM对潜在物种分布的预测显示出了显著的差异.
- 在这个实验设置中,SDM预测的准确性被发现是有限的.
- 这些差异突出了使用当前SDM来预测物种对环境变化的反应的潜在问题.
结论:
- 在气候变化情景下,SDM对未来物种分布的预测需要仔细解释.
- 这项研究强调了改进SDM方法的必要性,以提高其预测能力.
- 在保护规划和生物多样性管理决策中仅依赖SDM输出时,建议谨慎.
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