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一种提高二进制预测技能验证能力的方法
Thitithep Sitthiyot1, Kanyarat Holasut2
1Department of Banking and Finance, Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy, Chulalongkorn University, Mahitaladhibesra Bld., 10th Fl., Phayathai Rd., Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330, Thailand.
MethodsX
|October 29, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一个改进因子,以加强预测技能验证方法. 它确保对易于预测的事件进行准确的评分,改善预测人员的预测评估.
科学领域:
- 气象学 天气学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 现有的决定性二进制预测技能验证方法经常为容易预测的事件提供完美分数,误解预测准确性.
- 这种限制妨碍了对预测者技能的准确评估,特别是对于常见或可预测的事件.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个改进因子,改进决定性的二进制预测技能验证.
- 为了解决超额得分问题,对那些本质上很容易预测的事件进行完美的预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个改进因子,有两个组成部分:预测的方便性和事件频率.
- 使用两个假设数据集验证了改进因子.
- 将该因素应用于年度通货膨胀率预测和实际数据的实际评估.
主要成果:
- 改进因子成功地调整了易于预测的事件的得分,使它们更接近无技能预测基准.
- 证明了改进的方法提供了更现实的预测技能评估.
- 经验数据证实了改善因子在评估预测者绩效方面的实际用处.
结论:
- 提议的改进因子增强了现有的决定性二元预测技能验证方法.
- 这使得对预测准确性的评估更加准确和细致,特别是在可预测事件中.
- 该方法为评估预测者在现实场景中的技能提供了一个实用的工具.
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