在热太阳能发电厂的空间时间Kriging用于空间辐射估计与短期预测
J G Martin1, J R D Frejo2, J M Maestre2
1Department of Maritime and Transport Technology, TU Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.
Heliyon
|October 29, 2024
概括
这项研究通过使用先进的时空战术预测直接正常辐射 (DNI) 空间分布,提高了太阳能发电厂的效率. 该方法准确地估计了实时DNI,改善了短期太阳能预测.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 地质统计学 在地质统计学
背景情况:
- 太阳能发电厂的效率受到直接正常照射率 (DNI) 的波动的影响.
- 精确的实时估计和预测DNI空间分布对于优化太阳能生产至关重要.
- 现有的方法经常与DNI的动态和空间变化的性质作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种用于提高太阳能发电厂效率的新方法.
- 准确估计和预测实时直接正常辐射 (DNI) 的空间分布.
- 增强DNI短期预测和现在预测能力.
主要方法:
- 实现传感器网络和风力计数据集成.
- 应用的时空战争与一个异构的时空变量图.
- 综合风速依赖的变量图模型,用于增强DNI估计.
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法准确地估计了DNI的空间分布.
- 与最先进的方法相比,该技术显示出更高的性能.
- 在不同天空条件下使用合成数据的验证证实了该方法的稳定性.
结论:
- 开发的时空战争法有效地提高了太阳能发电厂的效率.
- 实时DNI估计和预测通过依赖风速的变量图显著增强.
- 这种方法为优化太阳能运营和电网集成提供了有价值的工具.
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