在智能可再生能源系统中基于人工智能的电力市场价格预测:结合先知和变压器模型
Cheng Huang1, Tianhui Zhao1, Di Huang2
1State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., LTD, Electric Power Research Institute, 211103, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.
Heliyon
|October 29, 2024
概括
一个新的混合模型将Prophet和Transformer与堆叠优化相结合,显著提高了电力市场价格预测的准确性和稳定性. 这增强了智能可再生能源系统运行和管理策略.
科学领域:
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 准确的电力市场价格预测对于智能可再生能源系统至关重要,特别是在极端事件期间.
- 传统的预测方法可能无法完全捕捉由功率电子转换器影响的复杂市场动态.
研究的目的:
- 为电力市场价格开发一种新的混合预测模型.
- 通过深度学习和传统时间序列方法来提高预测准确性和稳定性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合模型,整合了Prophet和Transformer.
- 实施了堆叠优化策略,以提高预测性能.
- 在四个不同的电力市场数据集上评估模型.
主要成果:
- 带有堆叠的混合Prophet-Transformer模型在预测准确性和稳定性方面取得了显著的改进.
- 实验结果证实了该模型的性能优于现有方法.
- 该模型为预测电力市场价格提供了更可靠的工具.
结论:
- 将传统的时间序列方法 (Prophet) 与深度学习 (Transformer) 和堆叠策略相结合,对于准确的电力市场价格预测至关重要.
- 开发的模型为智能可再生能源系统的高效运行和可持续发展提供技术支持.
- 这种方法有助于设计有效的能源管理策略,以实现可靠的输电.
相关概念视频
Wind Turbine Machine Models
108
In the growing field of wind energy, incorporating wind turbine models into transient stability analysis is essential. Induction and synchronous machines are the primary models used, with induction machines being prevalent due to their simplicity and reliability.
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
Induction machines interact through the rotating magnetic field generated by the stator and the rotor. The key parameter is slip, which is the difference between synchronous speed and rotor speed relative to synchronous speed. Slip is...
108
Transformers in Distribution System
98
Transformers in distribution systems can be broadly categorized into distribution substation transformers and other distribution transformers. They are crucial for stepping down high transmission voltages to levels suitable for distribution and end-user applications.
Distribution substation transformers come in various ratings and typically use mineral oil for insulation and cooling. To prevent moisture and air from entering the oil, some transformers use an inert gas like nitrogen to fill the...
Distribution substation transformers come in various ratings and typically use mineral oil for insulation and cooling. To prevent moisture and air from entering the oil, some transformers use an inert gas like nitrogen to fill the...
98
Control of Power Flow
254
There are several methods to control power flow in power systems:
254
Energy Losses in Transformers
836
In an ideal transformer, it is assumed that there are no energy losses, and, hence, all the power at the primary winding is transferred to the secondary winding. However, in reality, the transformers always have some energy losses, and, hence, the output power obtained at the secondary winding is less than the input power at the primary winding due to energy losses.
There are four main reasons for energy losses in transformers.
The first cause can be the high resistance of the...
There are four main reasons for energy losses in transformers.
The first cause can be the high resistance of the...
836
Energy and Power Signals
262
In an electrical system with a resistor, voltage and current signals facilitate the measurement of power and energy across the resistor. For a continuous-time signal, the total energy over a time interval is defined as the integral of the square of the signal's magnitude over that interval. Mathematically, this is expressed as:
262
Fast Decoupled and DC Powerflow
176
The fast decoupled power flow method addresses contingencies in power system operations, such as generator outages or transmission line failures. This method provides quick power flow solutions, essential for real-time system adjustments. Fast decoupled power flow algorithms simplify the Jacobian matrix by neglecting certain elements, leading to two sets of decoupled equations:
176


