冒险进入未知:在非模拟气候条件下建模外来物种时可变选择的重要性
Tom Vorstenbosch1,2, Franz Essl1, Bernd Lenzner1
1Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria.
Ecology and evolution
|October 30, 2024
概括
物种分布模型 (SDM) 对生物气候变量的选择很敏感,特别是在新气候中的非本地物种. 选择不同的温度变量大大改变了对入侵植物适合息地的预测.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 物种分布模型 (SDM) 对于了解物种对气候的反应至关重要.
- 模型预测变性是一个已知的问题,但气候变量选择的影响还没有得到充分研究.
- 评估这种影响至关重要,特别是对新型,非模拟气候的预测.
研究的目的:
- 测试气候变量选择是否是SDM的主要不确定性来源.
- 评估不同温度变量集对入侵物种SDM预测的影响.
- 调查预测者身份对模型结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 配备了142种外来植物物种的SDM,使用7个生物气候变量集,在两个温度变量上有所不同.
- 使用了全球发生数据,并预测到南极洲次岛屿的气候.
- 在物种的全球范围和岛屿气候之间计算的利基重叠.
主要成果:
- 根据所选的温度变量,SDM预测的差异很大,尽管内部评估指标相似.
- 使用最热的月份的平均温度导致预测不足,而使用最冷的月份导致预测过度.
- 预测者身份是预测变异的最重要来源,其次是岛屿和物种身份.
结论:
- 生物气候变量选择是影响SDM预测的关键因素,特别是对于非模拟气候.
- 这凸显了为准确的入侵风险评估而仔细选择变量的重要性.
- 这些发现强调了对SDM应用中变量选择的敏感性分析的必要性.
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