适用于亚热带城市不良健康影响的温度指标: 2010-2019年香港的案例研究
Janice Ying-En Ho1,2, Yitong Guo1, Ka Chun Chong1
1The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
International journal of biometeorology
|October 30, 2024
概括
最低和平均温度比最高温度更好地表明与热有关的死亡率和住院率. 这些发现可以改善热健康预警系统,特别是由于气候变化导致夜间变暖的增加.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 热健康预警系统对于减轻极端热的影响至关重要.
- 全球研究对与热有关的健康结果最有效的温度指标不一致.
- 高密度亚热带城市面临极端高温事件带来的独特挑战.
研究的目的:
- 综合评估不同温度指标 (最高,平均,最低) 与亚热带城市环境中的不良健康结果之间的关联.
- 确定最有信息的温度指标,用于预测夏季的非癌症死亡率和住院病例.
- 在气候变化的背景下,提供证据来加强热健康预警系统.
主要方法:
- 使用了通用增量模型 (GAM) 和分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM).
- 分析了来自高密度亚热带城市香港的数据,涵盖了2010年至2019年的夏季季节.
- 研究了最高,平均和最低温度之间的关联以及非癌症死亡率和住院病例.
主要成果:
- 最低和平均温度与增加的死亡风险有显著的关联.
- 最低温度也显示出与住院患者的显著关联.
- 最大温度与研究的健康结果没有显著的关联.
- 分层分析显示,老年人,女性和呼吸系统疾病的风险增加.
结论:
- 在亚热带城市环境中,最低和平均温度比最高温度更为有效的指标,用于热健康监测.
- 这些发现支持改进热健康预警系统,特别是考虑到预计的夜间变暖.
- 该方法可适用于其他城市化和亚热带地区,以评估与热有关的风险.
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