评估投资或剥离烟草投资的财务理由
Timothy Evans1,2, Ayesha Sayed3, Corné Van Walbeek4
1University of Cape Town School of Economics, Rondebosch, South Africa tim.m.evans@gmail.com.
Tobacco control
|October 30, 2024
概括
烟草公司面临着香烟销售和收入的下降,自2016年以来,股票表现恶化. 投资者应该考虑这些不断恶化的金融趋势和监管挑战.
科学领域:
- 财务分析 财务分析
- 投资战略 投资策略 投资策略
- 公共卫生经济学 公共卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 无烟投资组合倡导从烟草公司剥离投资,以促进"无烟世界".
- 该倡议认为,减少金融和投资者支持可以降低烟草公司的可持续性.
- 本研究探讨了投资或剥离烟草行业的财务可行性.
研究的目的:
- 评估投资或剥离烟草公司的财务理由.
- 分析全球主要烟草公司的财务业绩趋势.
- 提供有关烟草行业的投资决策的信息.
主要方法:
- 来自博社 (2008-2023) 的历史数据分析.
- 对九家主要烟草公司的销售量,实际收入和每支香烟的毛利的评估.
- 评估股票表现和价格对收益的趋势.
主要成果:
- 从2008年到2023年,香烟销售量持续下降.
- 新产品的收入贡献有限,而香烟仍然是主要的收入来源.
- 在9家公司中,有6家公司在2008年至2023年期间实际收入下降 (不包括无机增长).
- 难以抵消自2016年以来通过价格上减少的香烟销售额,影响了每支香烟的毛利.
- 自2016年以来,所有九个烟草库存的表现都与市场相比显著低,与2008-2016年的表现相比.
结论:
- 自2016年以来,烟草公司的财务业绩不断恶化,受监管增加的影响.
- 新产品的快速增长可能无法充分抵消卷烟销量下降,造成不确定性.
- 对烟草公司来说,增加的投资风险和持续糟糕股票表现的可能性是显而易见的.
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