预测巴巴里地 (Atlantoxerus getulus) 在气候变化下的未来分布,使用利基重叠分析和物种分布建模
Imene Habibi1, Hammadi Achour2, Farid Bounaceur3
1Laboratory of Sustainable Management of Natural Resources in Arid and Semi-arid Areas, Salhi Ahmed University Center of Naama, 45000, Naama, Algeria.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|October 31, 2024
概括
巴巴里地松鼠在本地和入侵范围之间表现出利基稳定性,但在阿尔及利亚由于气候变化而面临严重的息地丧失. 在北非迫切需要进行保护工作,在加拿大群岛迫切需要进行入侵物种管理.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 摩洛哥和阿尔及利亚原产的一种地松鼠Atlantoxerus getulus已被引入加拿大群岛.
- 了解入侵物种的生态利基动态对于预测它们的传播和影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析Atlantoxerus getulus在其本地和引入范围的利基重叠和动态.
- 在不同的气候变化场景下建模A. getulus的当前和未来分布.
- 评估进一步入侵的可能性,并为保护和管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 汇编了A. getulus的1272个事件记录.
- 使用探索和排序技术对生态利基进行分析.
- 用 SpatialMaxent 进行物种分布建模 (SDM),用于当前和未来的气候条件 (2050,2070).
- 利基重叠分析用于比较本地和异国产区.
主要成果:
- 生态区显示出本地 (摩洛哥,阿尔及利亚) 和异国情调 (加拿大群岛) 范围之间的等价性和显著相似性.
- 在加拿大群岛没有观察到任何显著的利基扩张,这表明利基稳定.
- 尽管稳定,但加拿大群岛90%的潜在利基市场仍未被占用,这表明入侵潜力很高.
- 预计在原生范围内出现大量息地收缩,在阿尔及利亚尤其严重 (到2070年将损失高达60%).
- 在预计的气候变化下,阿尔及利亚的适宜息地可能会在2050年前消失.
结论:
- 亚特兰托克塞鲁斯 (Atlantoxerus getulus) 展现出利基保守主义,但在其原产北非范围面临气候变化带来的严重威胁.
- 紧急的息地恢复和反偷猎措施对阿尔及利亚至关重要.
- 建议在摩洛哥进行现场保护,在加拿大群岛进行入侵物种管理.
- 在加拿大群岛需要开展公众宣传活动,以防止进一步传播.
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