对最常见的衰老疾病进行单一风险评估,在10项队列研究中开发和验证
Md Hamidul Huque1,2,3, Scherazad Kootar4, Kim M Kiely5
1School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Kensington, NSW, Australia.
BMC medicine
|November 1, 2024
概括
新的风险工具,DemNCD和DemNCD-LR,预测老年人的痴呆症和心脏代谢疾病. 这些工具与现有的单一疾病预测器具有相似的准确性,为社区和临床使用提供了潜力.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 开发对老年人主要非传染性疾病的风险预测工具至关重要.
- 痴呆症,中风,心肌梗塞 (MI) 和糖尿病的共同风险因素需要综合预测模型.
- 专注于65岁及以上的成年人进行有针对性的风险评估.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证在65岁以上的成年人中对痴呆症,中风,心脏病发作和糖尿病的新风险预测工具.
- 通过使用综合风险因素来评估这些工具的预测准确性.
- 将新工具的性能与现有的单一疾病风险计算器进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自10个基于人口的队列 (N=41,755) 的数据,平均随访时间从6.2到7.4年不等.
- 评估了22个风险因素,包括社会人口统计学,医学,生活方式和实验室生物标志物.
- 开发了两个风险工具 (DemNCD和DemNCD-LR),并使用Harrell的C统计和曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估了预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 对于所有四种结果,DemNCD和DemNCD-LR都表现出可比的预测准确性.
- 男性的总体AUC在0.58 (中风) 到0.68 (痴呆症,糖尿病) 之间.
- 女性的总体AUC在0.55 (中风) 到0.65 (痴呆症,心脏病) 之间.
结论:
- 该DemNCD工具是第一个使用广泛的风险因素预测痴呆和多种心脏代谢疾病的工具.
- 德姆NCD的预测准确度与现有的工具相似,这些工具是为65岁以上年龄组的单一结果而设计的.
- 该工具包含了自我报告和常规可用的临床措施,支持其在社区和临床环境中的潜在使用.
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