德克萨斯州的可再生能源供应和需求的潜在气候可预测性,考虑到ENSO隐藏状态
Mengjie Zhang1,2, Lei Yan1,2, Yash Amonkar3
1Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
Science advances
|November 1, 2024
概括
气候变化影响可再生能源. 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 状态可以预测德克萨斯州的每月风力,太阳能和供暖/冷却需求在1-6个月前.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 能源系统 能源系统
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 气候变化显著影响可再生电力供应和需求,影响电网可靠性.
- 德克萨斯州是一个可再生能源透率很高的地区,容易受到气候驱动的供需不平衡的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估德克萨斯州每月风能和太阳能发电以及供暖/制冷能源需求的潜在可预测性.
- 调查厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 对能源供需动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用非同质的隐藏马尔科夫模型来识别热带太平洋海面温度的隐藏状态,反映ENSO动态.
- 对德克萨斯州的月度能源供应 (风能,太阳能) 和需求 (供暖/制冷) 进行分析,预测未来1至6个月.
主要成果:
- 基于ENSO状态和日历月份,确定了能源供应过剩或供应不足的统计学上显著的潜力.
- 观察到与ENSO条件相关的异常加热和冷却能源需求模式.
结论:
- 德克萨斯州的ENSO州为德克萨斯州的可再生能源供应和能源需求提供了有价值的预测信息.
- 这些发现对金融证券化和气候信息能源预测的实际应用有影响.
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