一种竞争性风险的诺姆图,用于预测70岁以上的胃癌患者的特定存活率:基于SEER的研究
Maorun Zhang1, Xuliang Yang2, Jinyan Jia1
1Department of General Surgery, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin 300052, China; Tianjin Key Laboratory of Precise Vascular Reconstruction and Organ Function Repair, Tianjin 300052, China; Tianjin General Surgery Institute, Tianjin 300052, China.
Cancer epidemiology
|November 1, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测老年胃癌患者的癌症特异性生存率,确定改善预后的关键风险因素. 这种新型号的性能明显优于传统的TNM分期.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 老年医学 老年医学
背景情况:
- 老年人胃癌存活率受竞争死亡原因的影响.
- 在这个人口群体中调查癌症特异性生存率和风险因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过竞争风险分析,研究老年胃癌患者的癌症特异性生存率.
- 确定影响生存的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证一个预测性名ogram模型.
主要方法:
- 利用SEER数据库对8183名老年胃癌患者的队列进行了研究.
- 采用单变量和多变量竞争风险模型.
- 使用C指数,ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 开发和验证了一个名ogram.
- 通过使用净重新分类指数 (NRI) 和综合歧视改进 (IDI) 与TNM分阶段系统进行比较.
主要成果:
- 确定年龄,诊断年份,种族,瘤部位,SEER阶段,TNM阶段,手术,放射/化疗,淋巴结检查 (LNE),瘤等级和大小作为独立的风险因素.
- 开发的名图表显示了良好的预测性能.
- 与传统的TNM阶段相比,名图显著改善了预测.
结论:
- 一种新的诺米图准确地预测了老年胃癌患者的癌症特异性生存率.
- 该工具有助于临床决策和预后评估.
- 在现有的分期系统中,名图提供了显著的改进.
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