中国喉癌负担的长期趋势和未来预测:1990年至2030年的综合分析,使用GBD数据
Bijuan Chen1, Zhouwei Zhan2, Weining Fang1
1Department of Radiation Oncology, Fujian Cancer Hospital, Clinical Oncology School of Fujian Medical University, No. 420 Fuma Road, Fuzhou, 350014, Fujian, China.
Scientific reports
|November 3, 2024
概括
在中国,喉癌的发病率和患病率正在上升,特别是在男性中. 人口老龄化是主要的驱动因素,需要针对性的公共卫生干预措施,如戒烟和污染控制.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 喉癌在中国是一个越来越严重的公共卫生问题,其发病率和死亡率越来越高.
- 了解长期趋势和促成因素对于有效的公共卫生战略和政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1990年到2021年中国喉癌负担的时间趋势.
- 确定这些趋势的关键驱动因素,包括老龄化,流行病学转变和人口增长.
- 预测未来的发病率,并为公共卫生干预提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 的数据.
- 用于趋势分析的就业Joinpoint回归.
- 应用年龄周期队列 (APC) 和分解分析以量化趋势驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 观察到喉癌发生率和患病率的显著增加,特别是在男性中.
- 根据年龄标准化的发病率和死亡率在男性中明显高于女性.
- 老龄化成为增长率的主要驱动因素,流行病学变化显示出缓解效应.
- 城市化和经济增长时期与发病率增加相关.
- 贝叶斯式APC模型预测,持续的发病率增加到2030年.
结论:
- 在中国,喉癌的负担越来越大,需要集中公共卫生举措.
- 关键干预措施包括戒烟,环境污染控制和早期检测.
- 解决性别差异和实施强有力的预防战略至关重要.
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