与墨西哥和美国之间的非法移民和返回有关的天气偏差
Julia Li Zhu1, Nancy Chau2, Amanda D Rodewald3
1Department of Economics, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182.
概括
极端天气,特别是干旱,推动了从墨西哥到美国的非法移民. 持续的极端天气降低了移民返回本土社区的可能性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在全球范围内增加极端天气事件.
- 极端天气条件可以成为人类迁徙的驱动力.
- 了解移民模式对于政策和人道主义努力至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查极端天气对墨西哥和美国之间的非法移民的影响.
- 分析天气冲击如何影响移民决定和返回决定.
- 评估与天气有关的迁徙的长期影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自墨西哥84个农业社区的48,313人 (1992-2018) 的数据.
- 统计建模以将无证移民和返回决定与滞后的天气偏差 (五月至八月) 相关联.
- 在迁移分析中控制区域和时间混因素.
主要成果:
- 在遭受极度干旱的地区,非法移民的可能性显著增加.
- 持续的极端天气条件与移民返回墨西哥的可能性较低有关.
- 天气冲击在迁移动态和定居模式中起着明显的作用.
结论:
- 气候变化加剧的极端天气事件是非法移民的重要驱动因素.
- 与天气有关的移民增加了个人面临的风险,包括危险的旅程和依赖走私者.
- 调查结果强调需要考虑气候对人类流动性和边境动态的影响.
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