预测非洲的生育率下降由女性教育团体
Saroja Adhikari1, Wolfgang Lutz2,3, Endale Kebede3,4
1Kinship Inequalities Group, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock 18057, Germany.
概括
一种新方法预测了撒哈拉以南非洲的教育特异性生育率下降. 较高的女性教育水平在所有教育群体中始终与较低的生育率相关,改善了人口预测.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 女性教育是人口转型中生育率下降的公认驱动因素.
- 现有的人口模型隐式或明确地将教育纳入生育预测中.
- 需要直接预测特定于教育的生育趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为撒哈拉以南非洲的妇女队伍提出和验证一种预测教育特异性生育率下降的方法.
- 分析不同聚合级别的教育水平与生育率之间的关联.
- 为改善人口预测运行经验关联.
主要方法:
- 利用来自非洲国家的人口和健康调查数据 (1.03万例).
- 研究了理想家庭规模,完成队列生育率和集群,层级和国家层面的平均教育水平之间的关联.
- 用于国家一级趋势分析的质量调整的人力资本数据.
主要成果:
- 在所有教育类别中,在高等教育普及率和较低的生育率之间发现了一致的强有力的经验关联.
- 拟议的方法通过敏感性分析和样本外预测来证明其有效性.
- 该方法已成功应用于37个非洲国家.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了一个直接的方法来预测教育特异性生育率.
- 研究结果支持受过教育的女性对所有教育群体的生育趋势的影响.
- 这项研究有助于为社会经济和气候变化研究提供更准确的人口预测.
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