评估农民对当地气候变化看法的系统偏见
Gaurav Arora1,2, Hongli Feng3
1Department of Social Sciences and Humanities, Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology, New Delhi, India. gaurav@iiitd.ac.in.
Scientific reports
|November 4, 2024
概括
美国玉米带的许多农民误解了天气变化,可能会影响土地使用决策. 这项研究揭示了农民如何感知温度,降水和干旱趋势的偏见.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境心理学 环境心理学
背景情况:
- 科学气候变化数据对政策至关重要,但利益相关者的看法显著影响决策.
- 了解农民的看法对于有效的农业气候变化适应和减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估美国玉米带的玉米和大豆农民的天气感知偏差.
- 量化农民报告的天气感知与温度,降水和干旱的气象证据之间的差距.
- 调查土地使用决策如何影响这些感知偏见.
主要方法:
- 在玉米和大豆农民中进行了空间划分的初级调查.
- 将农民报告的天气感知 (温度,降雨,干旱) 与历史气象数据进行比较.
- 分析了土地使用变化 (草原上的作物发生率) 和感知偏差之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 大约70%的受访农民对过去的天气变化有误解.
- 在错误的农民中,四分之三高估了温度和干旱频率,而40%低估了降水趋势.
- 在以前的草原上种植更高的农民更有可能感知不到干旱和过度感知潮湿的条件.
结论:
- 农民对天气变化的看法有系统的偏见,经常与过去的土地使用决定保持一致.
- 这些感知偏见可能会影响气候变化政策和适应战略的有效性.
- 与经济决策一起调查感知偏见为气候政策制定提供了关键的见解.
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