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加快和延迟气候行动对爱尔兰在碳预算下的能源转型的影响
Vahid Aryanpur1,2, Olexandr Balyk3, James Glynn4
1MaREI, the Research Ireland Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
概括
由于爱尔兰的气候行动延迟,需要提前5年实现净零目标. 早期缓解努力至关重要,以避免碳锁定,浅资产和更高的长期成本.
科学领域:
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖需要国家能源减缓战略.
- 缓解努力的时间和它们对碳预算的影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏综合的部门分析,路径依赖性和需求侧策略.
研究的目的:
- 分析爱尔兰在平等的人均碳预算下的减缓途径.
- 评估延迟缓解对技术可行性和长期成本的影响.
- 确定实现"巴黎协定"目标所需的行动.
主要方法:
- 利用能源系统优化模型进行路径分析.
- 适用的平均人均碳预算框架.
- 研究了部门互动和需求侧策略.
主要成果:
- 延迟减缓将净零目标提前五年.
- 拖延行动增加了碳锁定和浅资产的风险.
- 更多地依赖二氧化碳去除技术和更高的长期成本与缓解延迟有关.
结论:
- 加快的中期缓解目标对于实现"巴黎协定"目标至关重要.
- 解决能源需求对于有效减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 对各国来说,积极及时实施能源减排措施至关重要.
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