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在气候变化情景下,使用优化马克森特模型预测中国临灭绝的Pyrethrum tatsienense的潜在分布

Duo Ping Zhu^1,2,3, Liu Yang^1,2,3, Yong-Hua Li^1,2,3

¹Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.

Ecology and evolution

|November 5, 2024

概括

气候变化影响临灭绝的Pyrethrum tatsienense息地,主要是在青海-西藏高原. 了解UV-B,海拔和降水等限制因素是保护策略的关键.

科学领域:

生态与保护生物学生态与保护生物学
生物地理和气候变化影响影响.
种类分布建模种类分布建模

背景情况:

气候变化对物种的生态适应性和多样性构成重大威胁.
(Pyrethrum tatsienense) 是一个临灭绝的中国物种,在不断变化的气候条件下需要进行息地评估.
了解息地分布和环境驱动因素对于有效的保护至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过生态利基建模分析Pyrethrum tatsienense在中国的息地分布.
确定影响其分布在各种气候场景 (过去,现在,未来) 中的主要环境因素.
为这个临灭绝的物种提供保护战略的见解.

主要方法:

利用Maxent算法进行物种分布建模,结合127个发生点.
使用ENMeval R包进行Maxent模型优化.
分析了过去的冰河间期,最后的冰川最大期,中 Holocene,当前和未来的气候场景的环境变量.

主要成果:

适合P. tatsienense的息地约占中国的15.02%,主要位于青海-西藏高原.
最高月份 (UVB3) 的平均UV-B,海拔 (elev) 和最温暖季节的降水量 (Bio18) 是主要的限制因素.
确定了最佳范围:UVB3>7500 J m−2天−1,elev 2700-5600 m,Bio18 150-480 mm. 这是一个非常好的范围.
历史上的避难所预测在四川 - 西藏 - 青海的十字路口;中 Holocene 显示增加适合性和向西扩张.
未来的情景预测,随着辐射强迫的增加,息地扩张,但西藏西部高度适合的地区可能会丧失.

结论:

环境因素,特别是UV-B,海拔和降水,极大地影响了P. tatsienense的分布.
预计气候变化将改变适合的息地,可能扩展到新的地区,但也威胁到现有的核心地区.
这些发现对于制定Pyrethrum tatsienense的有针对性的管理和保护计划至关重要.

关键词:

在 ENMevalval 中.皮雷斯 (Pyrethrum tatsienense) 是一种的植物.气候变化气候变化气候变化不同的气候条件,不同的气候条件.最大模型的最大模型适合息地分布适合息地分布

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