预测气候变化对物种气候适应性的影响:来自阿尔卑斯山国家的见解
Antoine Adde1,2, Nathan Külling3, Pierre-Louis Rey2
1Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
Global change biology
|November 5, 2024
概括
气候变化将对瑞士的生物多样性产生重大影响,影响许多物种并导致地理转移. 在合适的气候区域,保护区可能会增加,有助于保护规划.
科学领域:
- 生态学和环境科学生态学和环境科学
- 生物多样性研究的研究.
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 欧洲气候预测显示,夏季更干燥,降水模式发生变化,需要对生物多样性的影响评估.
- 目前的保护战略缺乏跨不同分类群体的全面,气候驱动的生物多样性预测.
- 瑞士是一个阿尔卑斯山国家,由于其地理位置和预计的气候变化,面临着独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对瑞士生物多样性的潜在影响.
- 为12个主要分类学群提供全面的,气候驱动的生物多样性预测.
- 通过确定未来适合气候的地区,为空间保护规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用最先进的物种分布建模与广泛的物种发生数据.
- 基线气候与7291种物种的分布之间的量化关系.
- 根据两个温室气体场景 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 预计未来的气候适应性,为三个30年期.
主要成果:
- 预计大多数物种的气候适应性会发生重大变化,RCP8.5 (68%) 的影响比RCP4.5 (66%) 的影响更大.
- 预计到2070-2099年,数千种物种,特别是软体动物,藻类和两动物 (RCP8.5) 的气候适应性会大幅度下降.
- 气候适应性的地理转移主要是向上,向南和向东,保护区覆盖率增加.
结论:
- 气候变化对瑞士的生物多样性构成重大威胁,需要采取适应性保护战略.
- 物种分布模型为在气候变化中的积极保护计划提供了关键的见解.
- 识别和保护未来适合气候的地区对于保护瑞士的生物多样性至关重要.
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