癌症的全球差异及其在2050年的预测负担
Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu1, Kedir Y Ahmed1, Getiye Dejenu Kibret2,3
1Rural Health Research Institute, Charles Sturt University, Orange, Australia.
JAMA network open
|November 5, 2024
概括
预计到2050年,全球癌症病例和死亡人数将大幅增加,特别是在人类发展指数 (HDI) 较低的国家. 通过改善医疗保健准入来解决差异对于公平的癌症预防和护理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 全球瘤学 全球瘤学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 癌症预防和护理面临着COVID-19流行病和武装冲突等全球事件带来的挑战.
- 这些挑战影响了全球人类发展指数 (HDI),特别是在低收入和中等收入国家.
- 监测癌症统计数据对于在不确定的时期确保公平的癌症护理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在2022年量化36种癌症类型的全球负担.
- 根据性别,年龄和地理位置分析癌症发病率和死亡率.
- 预测未来的癌症趋势,直到2050年.
主要方法:
- 一项利用全球癌症观测中心数据库对2022年185个国家和地区的基于人口的数据进行的横截面研究.
- 数据提取和分析于2024年4月进行.
- 目前和未来癌症负担的特征包括数量,率,流行率,死亡率与发病率 (MIRs) 和人口预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,全球癌症病例将增加76.6%,达到3530万,死亡人数将增加89.7%,达到1850万.
- 预计HDI较低的国家的癌症病例和死亡人数将增加近三倍,明显超过HDI非常高的国家的增长.
- 预计男性和女性之间癌症发病率和死亡率的差异将扩大,在老年人群,男性,低HDI国家和非洲地区观察到更高的MIR.
结论:
- 在HDI水平,地理区域,年龄和性别之间存在显著的癌症差异,预测显示到2050年,癌症差距将越来越大.
- 加强医疗保健的获取和质量,包括全民医疗保险,对于有效的癌症预防,诊断和护理至关重要.
- 这些发现凸显了迫切需要有针对性的干预措施,以减轻日益增长的全球癌症负担,并确保健康公平.
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