2012-2022年巴西艾滋病死亡率:一项时间序列研究
Lucas de Souza Luna1, Rafael Pedro de Souza Nascimento1, Paula Esbaltar de Oliveira1
1Federal University of the São Francisco Valley (UNIVASF), Av José Maniçoba, s/n, Centro, Petrolina, Pernambuco, 56.304-205, Brazil.
AIDS research and therapy
|November 6, 2024
概括
巴西的艾滋病死亡率从2012年到2020年有所下降,但从2020年到2022年增加. 区域差异和COVID-19大流行影响了获得性免疫缺陷综合征 (AIDS) 死亡的这些趋势.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 感染对全球健康构成重大挑战,有可能发展为高死亡率的获得性免疫缺陷综合征 (AIDS).
- 有效的艾滋病毒/艾滋病管理和监测对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2012年至2022年期间巴西,其宏观地区,联邦单位和首都艾滋病死亡率的时间趋势.
- 确定艾滋病死亡率的区域差异和潜在影响因素.
主要方法:
- 对2012年至2022年巴西所有报告的艾滋病死亡病例进行了时间序列分析.
- 结点回归模型被用来分析原始和标准化死亡率的时间趋势.
- 年度百分比变化 (APC) 和年平均百分比变化 (AAPC) 用95%的置信区间计算.
主要成果:
- 总共记录了128,678例艾滋病死亡,原始和标准化死亡率分别为6.3/100,000和5.3/100,000.
- 从2012年到2020年,在中西部,东南部和南部地区以及10个州和10个首都,观察到艾滋病死亡率的显著下降趋势.
- 从2020年开始,与2019年相比,北,东北和东南地区的艾滋病死亡人数有所增加.
结论:
- 巴西的艾滋病死亡率从2012年到2020年呈现下降趋势,随后从2020年到2022年呈现上升趋势.
- 在死亡率趋势中观察到的区域差异可能反映了潜在的社会不平等.
- COVID-19 疫情似乎影响了巴西艾滋病毒/艾滋病的管理和结果.
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