关于因果关系呈现顺序的可互换性:关于提示和结果密度效应的实验测试
Sahana Shankar1,2, Nicola Byrom1, Wijnand A P van Tilburg3
1Psychology Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience (IoPPN), King's College London, London, UK.
Quarterly journal of experimental psychology (2006)
|November 6, 2024
概括
当结果频繁时,参与者会高估治疗的有效性. 事件密度,特别是结果,显著影响判断,比呈现的事件顺序更重要. 这表明在时间顺序上对因果状态的敏感性.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 因果推理因果推理
背景情况:
- 应急学习研究强调了结果密度效应,其中频繁的结果导致了对提示结果关系的高估.
- 线索密度效应的研究较少,但与结果密度效应类似.
- 有限的研究同时研究了事件密度效应和事件呈现顺序对应急判断的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查事件 (因果) 密度的独立操纵如何影响应急判断.
- 检查原因和后果事件的呈现顺序对意外判决的作用.
- 为了确定事件密度或呈现顺序是否对感知意外情况产生更大的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了三项实验,参与者评估了医疗治疗的有效性.
- 实验1独立操纵了因果 (治疗) 和效果 (恢复) 事件的密度.
- 实验2a和2b操纵了因果事件的呈现顺序以及密度操纵.
主要成果:
- 观察到事件密度的显著主要效应,效应密度的影响比原因密度更大.
- 效果密度显著影响了偶然性判断 (η2 = .60),而因果密度则具有较小但显著的影响 (η2 = .31).
- 因果事件的呈现顺序对判断产生了极小且不显著的影响.
结论:
- 效果密度对意外判断有很大影响,而因果密度的影响较小.
- 事件呈现的时间顺序在这些应急判断中并不重要.
- 研究结果表明,在形成判断时,个人可能会优先考虑事件的因果关系,而不是它们的时间序列.
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