在1月6日美国国会大起义期间,使用格兰杰因果关系量化社交媒体暴力预测因素
Qinghua Li1,2, Brayden G King1, Brian Uzzi1,2,3
1Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|November 6, 2024
概括
前总统特朗普的推文预测,1月6日国会大骚乱期间暴力和武器使用增加. 他的在线活动也影响了其他社交媒体消息,进一步解释了从和平抗议到暴力的升级.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
背景情况:
- 工业发达国家越来越多的暴力抗议活动.
- 对领导人社交媒体与抗议暴力之间的联系的科学理解有限.
- 需要分析特定事件来量化这些关系.
研究的目的:
- 量化领导层社交媒体沟通与抗议期间暴力水平之间的关系.
- 分析1月6日美国国会大骚乱的具体案例.
- 调查前总统特朗普关于抗议暴力的推文的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 分析1月6日美国国会大暴乱的数据,包括现场录像,特朗普的推文,集会演讲和#StopTheSteal推文.
- 应用格兰杰回归方法来分析时间关系.
- 量化在线行为,#StopTheSteal推文和暴力严重程度/持续时间之间的联系.
主要成果:
- 前总统特朗普的推文大大预测了暴乱期间暴力和武器使用的程度和持续时间的增加.
- 特朗普的推文也影响了#StopTheSteal推文的数量和情绪.
- #StopTheSteal推文解释了抗议暴力的额外变异,通过特朗普的在线活动进行调解.
结论:
- 在抗议期间,权威人物的在线行为与暴力升级之间存在直接联系.
- 强调社交媒体在调解从和平集会转向集体暴力方面的作用.
- 为领导沟通对抗议动态和暴力的影响提供经验证据.
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