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从1990年到2019年全球变暖和自闭症谱系障碍之间的关系
Qinfeng Zhou1, Junjun Chen2, Junxiong Ma1
1Department of Global Health, The Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China.
BJPsych open
|November 6, 2024
概括
全球变暖与自闭症谱系障碍 (ASD) 风险增加有关,特别是在男孩和低度地区. 未来的预测显示,在高排放场景下,ASD发病率显著上升,这突显了气候变化的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 神经发育障碍 神经发育障碍
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 新出现的证据将神经系统疾病与气候变化联系起来.
- 自闭症谱系障碍 (ASD) 和全球变暖之间的具体关系仍然未被探索.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球变暖与自闭症发病率在1990-2019年之间的关联.
- 预测未来的ASD发病率趋势,从2020年到2100年.
主要方法:
- 分析了TerraClimate (1990-2019) 的气象数据.
- 一个通用的增值回归模型评估了ASD发病率和温度变化.
- 未来的自闭症发病率使用四种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 进行了预测.
主要成果:
- 全球平均ASD发病率为96.9/100,000名5岁以下的儿童 (男性:147.5,女性:46.3).
- 温度上升1.0°C与ASD风险上升3.0%相关.
- 这种关联在男性,低收入地区和低度地区更为明显.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是气温上升,与全球自闭症发病率的增加有关.
- 根据SSP585情景,到2100年,在特定地区,ASD发病率可能会增加68.6%.
- 缓解场景 (SSP126) 可能会减少这一预计的增加;需要进一步的研究.
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