21世纪埃及尼罗河的洪水
Ahmed Badawy1,2, Mohamed Sultan3, Karem Abdelmohsen1,4
1Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, 49008, USA.
Scientific reports
|November 6, 2024
概括
全球降水量增加增加了尼罗河的洪水. 蓝尼罗河子盆地驱动着这种下水,预计未来的洪水将会加剧. 重新充电埃及
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 环境工程 环境工程
背景情况:
- 全球极端降水和洪水事件正在增加,影响水资源管理.
- 纳塞尔湖 (LN) 在过去二十年中已经填满了两次,原因是尼罗河源区的高降水量.
- 纳塞尔湖的溢出流失在西部低谷的蒸发中,突出了需要可持续的水资源管理战略的需要.
研究的目的:
- 在过去的二十年中,确定导致纳塞尔湖流量增加的主要原因.
- 评估气候变化对纳塞尔湖下水流量在整个21世纪的影响.
- 为预计降雨量和洪水极端情况的增加提出适应策略.
主要方法:
- 利用基于卫星的时间数据,气候模型和连续降雨-流水模型.
- 使用全球循环模型 (GCM) 预测 (CCSM4,HadGEM3,GFDL-CM4.0) 对21世纪模拟进行了降雨-流水模型 (1965-1992) 的校准.
- 应用极端价值分析对预计的流水数据.
主要成果:
- 蓝尼罗河子盆地 (BNS) 被确定为下游下水流量增加的主要原因.
- 模拟表明,预计21世纪的极端洪水将变得更加严重.
- 预计降水量增加的幅度在25-39%之间,洪水极端情况增加2-20%.
结论:
- 蓝尼罗河子流域在尼罗河下水中的作用需要集中水资源管理.
- 预计气候变化将加剧尼罗河流域的洪水风险.
- 在高洪年期间对埃及的化石含水层进行补充是管理增加的水资源和减轻洪水影响的可行适应策略.
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