我会以同样的方式行事的可能性有多大:在不确定的情况下模拟道德判断
Paul C Bogdan1,2, Sanda Dolcos1,2,3, Florin Dolcos1,2,3
1Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Cognitive science
|November 7, 2024
概括
人们通过考虑自己是否会在同样的情况下采取类似的行动来判断他人的道德行为. 这种概率推理模型比社会规范或基于危害的理论更好地预测不确定性下的道德判断.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 道德心理学道德心理学
- 社会认知是指社会认知.
背景情况:
- 道德判断往往涉及不确定性,因为关于上下文的信息不完整.
- 传统理论侧重于社会规范或危害/益处,但可能无法完全捕捉不确定性下的判断.
研究的目的:
- 提出并测试基于概率推理的道德判断的新模型.
- 研究个人如何通过考虑他们自己在类似环境中的潜在行为来评估他人的行为.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个贝叶斯模型,将道德判断形式化为概率推理.
- 进行了四项研究 (N=601),使用道德短片和经济游戏来测试该模型.
- 将拟议模型的预测能力与传统理论进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型在预测不确定性下的道德判断方面明显优于传统理论.
- 有证据支持这样的观点,即人们评估在另一个人的情况下采取类似行动的可能性.
- 研究结果强调了在分析不确定性时整合可能性的作用.
结论:
- 整合概率推理的道德判断的新型模型为不确定性下的判断提供了更好的解释.
- 这一框架有可能统一跨越社会判断,决策和概率推理的研究.
- 这项研究表明,个人如何通过考虑多种潜在的背景来应对不确定性.
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