1990年至2021年中国中风负担分析以及未来十年的预测
Xingzhu Li1,2, Tianyu Jin2,3, Chen Bai1,2
1School of Rehabilitation Medicine, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Neuroepidemiology
|November 7, 2024
概括
从1990年到2021年,中风发病率和死亡率在中国下降,但患病率上升,特别是在老年人中. 未来的预测显示,尽管死亡率下降,但患病率仍在上升,这凸显了持续公共卫生工作的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
背景情况:
- 脑卒中仍然是一个重大的全球健康挑战,不同地区的趋势各不相同.
- 了解中风负担的时间变化对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 中国的人口变化,包括人口老龄化,需要对中风趋势进行具体分析.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990年至2021年中国中风发病率,患病率,死亡率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的时间趋势.
- 将中国中风负担趋势与全球数据进行比较.
- 预测中国未来的中风负担,并确定主要的人口影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担研究 (1990-2021) 的数据.
- 使用Joinpoint软件计算年平均百分比变化 (AAPC) 来评估趋势.
- 雇用ARIMA建模用于未来的中风负担预测,考虑年龄和性别差异.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,中国的年龄标准化中风发病率,死亡率和DALY率有所下降,但患病率有所增加.
- 中国的年龄标准化中风患病率上升,与全球的下降形成鲜明对比.
- 男性的中风发病率和死亡率较高;预测显示,在未来十年内,中风发病率稳定,但在中国的流行率上升.
结论:
- 中国的中风负担发生了转变,死亡率和DALYs下降,但患病率增加,特别影响老年人群.
- 男人面临更高的风险中风和相关的死亡率.
- 中国人口老龄化对控制中风发病率的上升构成重大挑战,需要持续的公共卫生举措.
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