2020年老年癌症死亡率模式的全球变化和2040年的预测:基于人口的研究
Manoj Kalita1, M Devaraja1, Indranil Saha1
1ICMR-Centre for Ageing & Mental Health, Kolkata, India.
The Indian journal of medical research
|November 8, 2024
概括
预计到2040年,老年人癌症死亡率将增加80.2%,这对医疗保健系统构成重大挑战,特别是在低收入国家. 这凸显了对老年瘤服务的日益增长的需求.
科学领域:
- 老年瘤学 老年瘤学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 癌症显著减少了预期寿命,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家 (LMIC),医疗保健资源有限.
- 全球人口正在老龄化,预计到2050年,LMIC国家将有大量的老年人口,加剧癌症的影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计当前的癌症死亡率在老年人 (60岁及以上).
- 预测到2040年,老年人群中未来的癌症死亡人数.
- 突出对医疗保健系统的影响以及老年瘤学的作用.
主要方法:
- 采用Globocan 2020数据用于60岁及以上人群癌症死亡率统计.
- 按性别和大陆计算的年龄标准化的截断死亡率.
- 应用了一个投影模型来估计未来的癌症死亡,假设死亡率稳定.
主要成果:
- 2020年,癌症在老年人中造成约750万例死亡,占所有癌症死亡人数的71.2%.
- 根据年龄调整后的死亡率为每10万人中615.1,男性的死亡率比女性高62.6%.
- 预计到2040年,老年人癌症死亡人数将增加80.2%,从705万增加到1270万.
结论:
- 预计老年人癌症死亡率的增加将给医疗保健系统带来压力,特别是在资源有限的LMIC国家.
- 老年患者由于并发病而面临更高的风险,强调需要专门的老年瘤学护理.
- 改善老年癌症患者的分层数据对于支持老年瘤学倡议和确保患者福祉至关重要.
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